FOREIGN TRADE IN UKRAINIAN GOODS WITH POLAND, ROMANIA, SLOVAKIA AND MOLDOVA: ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
Keywords:export, import, goods, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, the Republic of Moldova
Introduction. Poland, Romania, Slovakia and the Republic of Moldova are Ukraine’s geographical neighbors. The proximity of the location facilitates Ukraine’s foreign trade with these countries. However, export-import operations with each neighboring country have their own characteristics and prospects. The purpose of the article is a comprehensive analysis and forecasting of export-import transactions with goods between Ukraine and neighboring countries: Poland, Romania, Slovakia and the Republic of Moldova. Results. The analysis was conducted on the basis of statistical data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for 2011–2021. The method of extrapolation of trends was used to forecast the indicators of foreign trade in goods of Ukraine for three years (2022–2024). Exports of goods from Ukraine to Poland were quite high: from 1,977.3 million dollars US in 2015 to 5,227.6 million dollars US in 2021; imports – from 2,324.0 million dollars US in 2015 to 4,958.8 million dollars US in 2021 Exports of goods from Ukraine to Romania were low: from 546.9 million dollars US in 2013 to 1,543.7 million dollars US in 2021; imports – from 318.2 million dollars US in 2015 to 1,117.2 million dollars US in 2011 Exports of goods from Ukraine to Slovakia were low: from 446.8 million dollars US in 2020 to 999.4 million dollars US in 2021; imports – from 346.3 million dollars US in 2015 to 1,143.4 million dollars US in 2020. Exports of goods from Ukraine to the Republic of Moldova were low: from 481.1 million dollars US in 2016 to 895.7 million dollars US in 2013; imports are even lower – from 41.2 million dollars US in 2015 to 125.9 million dollars USA in 2011. Conclusions. Among the analyzed countries, most goods were exported to Poland (from 3.8 to 7.7 %). The largest shares in imports of goods also belonged to Poland (from 3.9 to 7.6 %). According to the forecast models, the growth of export-import commodity operations of Ukraine with all analyzed countries is expected. However, the war on the territory of Ukraine may hinder their implementation. Forecasts of exports of goods to Poland and Romania are the most likely.
Kastakova, E., & Bebiakova, D. (2016). Estimated economic impact of the implementation of the DCFTA on the foreign trade of Slovakia and the Ukraine. 16-th international scientific conference proceedings on Globalization and its socio-economic consequences, Slovak Republic, 2, 831–838.
Koliadenko, S., Andreichenko, A., Galperina, L., Minenko, S., & Kovylina, M. (2020). Analysis and forecasting of Ukrainian agrarian exports to the EU countries. Agricultural and resource economics-international scientific e-journal, 6(3), 29–47.
Moroz, S., Nagyova, L., Bilan, Y., Horska, E., & Polakova, Z. (2017). The current state and prospects of trade relations between Ukraine and the European Union: the Visegrad vector. ECONOMIC ANNALS-XXI, 163(1–2), 14–21.
Nagyova, L., Horakova, M., Moroz, S., Horska, E., & Polakova, Z. (2018). The analysis of export trade between Ukraine and Visegrad countries. E & M EKONOMIE A MANAGEMENT, 21(2), 115–132.
Nepriadkina, N. V. (2017). Spetsyfika zovnishnoi torhivli posluhamy Ukrainy z krainamy Skhidnoi Yevropy [Specifics of Ukrainian Services Foreign Trade with the Countries of Eastern Europe]. Visnyk Kharkivskoho natsionalnoho universytetu imeni V. N. Karazina. Ser.: Mizhnarodni vidnosyny. Ekonomika. Krainoznavstvo. Turyzm [Bulletin of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University. Ser.: International Relations. Economy. Local lore. Tourism], 6, 50–53 [in Ukrainian].
Kushniruk V., & Ivanenko T. (2017). Analysis of trends and prospects for development of export and import of goods and services by enterprises of Ukraine at the regional level. Baltic journal of economic studies, 3(5), 252–259.
Totska, O. L. (2021). ABC-analiz krain YeS za obsiahom tovarooborotu z Ukrainoiu v 2020 rotsi [ABC-analysis of EU countries in terms of trade with Ukraine in 2020]. Upravlinnia resursnym zabezpechenniam hospodarskoi diialnosti pidpryiemstv realnoho sektoru ekonomiky: materialy VI Vseukr. nauk.-prakt. int.-konf. z mizhnar. uchastiu [Management of resource provision of economic activity of enterprises of the real sector of the economy: materials VI All-Ukrainian scientific-practical int.-conf. with international participation], Ukraine, 131–133 [in Ukrainian].
Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy [State Statistics Service of Ukraine]. (2022). Ukraine’s Foreign Trade in Goods, 2011–2021. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua.
Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy [State Statistics Service of Ukraine]. (2022). Commodity Pattern of Foreign Trade of Ukraine, 2021. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua.
Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy [State Statistics Service of Ukraine]. (2022). Krainy za tovarnoiu strukturoiu zovnishnoi torhivli Ukrainy za sichen-hruden 2021 roku [Countries by Commodity Structure of Ukraine’s Foreign Trade in January-December 2021]. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].